Ecological and social modeling efforts integrate the data gathered by each of the working
groups to predict the effects of human-controlled water flow (volume, timing, and spatial
distribution) on ecosystem attributes, such as nutrient availability and
primary productivity.
FCE-LTER researchers believe that a hierarchical network of models is the best approach to
understanding ecosystem dynamics
in the estuarine ecotones.
At the bottom level of the
hierarchy are models that emphasize structural and functional components of the ecosystem,
such as periphyton, larger marsh plants,
and mangrove trees. In the second tier, models
emphasize water budget, or the amount of water, and human control over water budget. At the
top level of the modeling hierarchy, models from tiers one and two are integrated to provide
a more comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem. In Phase II of the FCE-LTER project,
scientists continue to develop two regional spatial models:
the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM)
and the ATLSS (Across Trophic Level System Simulation) Model.
How do these factors affect people in south Florida?
Social and economic activities in south Florida can be profoundly impacted
by freshwater availability, flooding, sea level rise, and climatic disturbances such as, hurricanes.
Water management decisions are influenced by the hydrologic needs of the Everglades and the water demands
associated with consumptive use, flood control, and economic development. These four elements can conflict
with one another, creating spatial and temporal “trade-offs” that often appease one component of the
landscape at the expense of another. The FCE models and synthesis approaches are designed to incorporate
synergistic feedbacks and indirect effects that are not obvious or are poorly understood to better quantify
the impacts associated with these trade-offs, and in the long-term, prevent management decisions that have
irrevocable consequences on the ecosystem services provided by the Greater Everglades.
|
|
